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A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."

New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.

"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Both authors two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.

Arguments cover identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."

Request for Wider Dialogue

Westminster must join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."